Countries influence the trade-off between crop yields and nitrogen pollution.

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Agricultural Science
• Policy Analysis

Background:

• National institutions and policies are recognized as key drivers for sustainable global food systems.
• Limited causal evidence exists on the specific influence of countries on agricultural production and environmental impact.
• Understanding these country-level effects is crucial for effective global environmental and food security strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To causally quantify the influence of country-level factors, including institutions and policies, on crop yield gaps and nitrogen pollution.
• To assess the trade-off between reducing nitrogen pollution and increasing crop yields at a national level.
• To identify factors explaining variations in nitrogen pollution relative to crop yields across countries.

Main Methods:

• Utilized global geospatial datasets for comprehensive analysis.
• Employed a regression discontinuity design to establish causal relationships.
• Quantified the impact of country-level factors on crop yield gaps and nitrogen pollution.

Main Results:

• Countries exert a much stronger influence on nitrogen pollution than on crop yields.
• A small trade-off was observed between reducing nitrogen pollution and increasing crop yields.
• Countries causing 35% less nitrogen pollution exhibited only a 1% larger yield gap compared to neighbors.

Conclusions:

• National governments possess significant capacity to mitigate global nitrogen pollution.
• Reductions in nitrogen pollution can be achieved with minimal negative impact on agricultural production.
• Factors like economic development, population, institutional quality, and financial flows influence pollution-yield relationships.