Evolutionary History Mediates Population Response to Rapid Environmental Change through Within-Generational and...

Area of Science:

• Evolutionary biology
• Ecology
• Environmental science

Background:

• Rapid environmental change poses a significant threat to many species.
• Phenotypic plasticity is a crucial mechanism for organismal adaptation to changing environments.
• Plasticity can occur within a generation (within-generation plasticity) or across generations (transgenerational plasticity).

Purpose of the Study:

• To extend an evolutionary model to incorporate changes in environmental regimes.
• To investigate how environmental change impacts population growth rate based on evolutionary history and plasticity.
• To evaluate conditions under which populations can successfully respond to rapid environmental change.

Main Methods:

• An existing evolutionary model was extended to include changes in environmental mean, variance, autocorrelation, and cue reliability.
• The model simulated population responses to altered environmental conditions.
• Predictions regarding populations adapted to variable environments or with high within-generation plasticity were evaluated.

Main Results:

• Population growth rate's response to environmental change depends on evolutionary history and past responses, especially when rapid evolution of plasticity is not possible.
• Environmental change is most detrimental when previously reliable cues become unreliable.
• Unreliable cues can cause deleterious effects irrespective of a population's evolutionary history.

Conclusions:

• Plasticity plays a vital role in population persistence during rapid environmental change.
• Evolutionary history and the reliability of environmental cues are critical factors determining population success.
• The study provides a framework for understanding population resilience in the face of environmental shifts.