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A Precise and Autonomous System for the Detection of Insect Emergence Patterns

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Mechanistic models project bird invasions with accuracy.

Diederik Strubbe^1,2, Laura Jiménez^3,4, A Márcia Barbosa⁵

¹Terrestrial Ecology Unit (TEREC), Department of Biology, Ghent University, K.L. Ledeganckstraat 35, 9000, Gent, Belgium. diederik.strubbe@ugent.be.

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|May 2, 2023

Summary

Predicting invasive species ranges is crucial for biodiversity protection and economic reasons. Ecophysiological models accurately identify at-risk areas by analyzing species

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Area of Science:

Ecology
Invasive Species Biology
Conservation Science

Background:

Invasive species represent a significant threat to global biodiversity.
Effective management strategies for bio-invasions rely on accurate predictions of potential distribution ranges.
Current methods for predicting invasive ranges face considerable uncertainty.

Purpose of the Study:

To accurately determine the geographical area at risk of invasion by non-native species.
To evaluate the efficacy of ecophysiological mechanistic models in predicting invasive species distribution.
To identify key functional traits influencing the potential invasive ranges of species.

Main Methods:

Utilized ecophysiological mechanistic models to quantify the fundamental thermal niches of species.
Focused on a dataset of primarily (sub)tropical bird species introduced to Europe.
Analyzed functional traits including body allometry, body temperature, metabolic rates, and feather insulation.

Main Results:

Ecophysiological mechanistic models accurately predicted the true extent of geographical areas at risk of invasion.
Potential invasive ranges were primarily constrained by specific functional traits.
These traits included body allometry, body temperature, metabolic rates, and feather insulation.

Conclusions:

Mechanistic predictions, by identifying tolerable climates beyond realized niches, are superior for invasion risk assessment.
These models provide a robust framework for informing policy and management decisions.
This approach aids in preventing and mitigating the impacts of invasive species.