Climate change impacts on plant pathogens, food security and paths forward

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Evolutionary Biology
• Plant Pathology
• Climate Science

Background:

• Plant disease outbreaks significantly threaten global food security, biodiversity, and socio-economic stability.
• Climate change intensifies these risks by influencing pathogen evolution, host-pathogen interactions, and the emergence of new strains, leading to range shifts and increased disease spread.
• Altered pathogen dynamics under climate change impact both natural and agricultural ecosystems, affecting primary productivity.

Purpose of the Study:

• To review how plant disease pressures will likely change under future climate scenarios.
• To analyze the relationship between these changes and plant productivity in diverse ecosystems.
• To propose advancements in conceptual frameworks and research approaches for better prediction and mitigation of plant disease risks.

Main Methods:

• Literature review examining current and projected impacts of climate change on plant diseases.
• Analysis of climate change effects on pathogen biogeography, disease incidence, and severity.
• Exploration of eco-evolutionary theories for improved mechanistic understanding of pathogen spread.

Main Results:

• Climate change is projected to alter pathogen distribution and increase disease incidence and severity globally.
• These changes pose substantial risks to agricultural yields and the health of natural ecosystems.
• Existing conceptual frameworks may be insufficient for predicting future disease dynamics.

Conclusions:

• Amending current frameworks with eco-evolutionary theories can enhance understanding and prediction of pathogen spread under climate change.
• Establishing a robust science-policy interface is essential for effective monitoring and management of plant diseases.
• Proactive strategies are needed to ensure long-term food security and ecosystem sustainability in the face of escalating climate-driven disease risks.