Target Trial Emulation to Improve Causal Inference from Observational Data: What, Why, and How?

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Biostatistics
• Health Services Research

Background:

• Observational studies investigating intervention effects are often plagued by biases.
• Target trial emulation has emerged as a popular method to improve the quality of such studies.
• This approach aims to mitigate avoidable biases inherent in traditional observational analyses.

Approach:

• This review details the principles and methodology of target trial emulation.
• It explains how to conduct a target trial emulation analysis for intervention studies.
• The review contrasts target trial emulation with commonly used, yet biased, analytical methods.

Key Points:

• Target trial emulation standardizes the design and analysis of observational studies.
• It enhances the validity of causal inference from observational data.
• Understanding target trial emulation is crucial for interpreting intervention effect studies.

Conclusions:

• Target trial emulation should be the standard for causal observational studies on interventions.
• This method provides tools for clinicians and researchers to better interpret results.
• Adopting target trial emulation leads to more reliable evidence on intervention effectiveness.