A novel computer based risk prediction model for vocal cord palsy before thyroidectomy

Thyroidectomy may be performed for clinical indications that include malignancy, benign nodules or cysts suspicious findings on fine needle aspiration (FNA) biopsy, dyspnea from airway compression or dysphagia from cervical esophageal compression, etc. The incidences of vocal cord palsy (VCP) caused by thyroid surgery were reported to range from 3.4% to 7.2% and 0.2% to 0.9% for temporary and permanent vocal fold palsy respectively which is a serious complication of thyroidectomy that is worrisome for patients.

Therefore, it is aimed to determine the patients who have the risk of developing vocal cord palsy before thyroidectomy by using machine learning methods in the study. In this way, the possibility of developing palsy can be reduced by applying appropriate surgical techniques to individuals in the high-risk group.

For this aim, 1039 patients with thyroidectomy, between the years 2015 and 2018, have been used from Karadeniz Technical University Medical Faculty Farabi Hospital at the department of general surgery. The clinical risk prediction model was developed using the proposed sampling and random forest classification method on the dataset.

As a result, a novel quite a satisfactory prediction model with 100% accuracy was developed for VCP before thyroidectomy. Using this clinical risk prediction model, physicians can be helped to identify patients at high risk of developing post-operative palsy before the operation.