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Actuarial Approach

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The actuarial approach, a statistical method originally developed for life insurance risk assessment, is widely used to calculate survival rates in clinical and population studies. This method accounts for participants lost to follow-up or those who die from causes unrelated to the study, ensuring a more accurate representation of survival probabilities.
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A life table is a statistical tool that summarizes the mortality and survival patterns of a population, providing detailed insights into the likelihood of survival or death across different age intervals within a cohort. By organizing data on survival probabilities and mortality rates, life tables offer a clear snapshot of population dynamics over time. They are extensively used in demography, public health, actuarial science, and ecology to analyze life expectancy, design health interventions,...
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Life tables are versatile across various fields, providing a quantitative basis for analyzing mortality and survival rates. Whether used by demographers, actuaries, epidemiologists, or sociologists, life tables offer valuable insights into the dynamics of life and death, facilitating informed decisions in public health, insurance, conservation, and beyond. Their broad applicability highlights the interconnectedness of demographic data with practical outcomes in everyday life and strategic...
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The Kaplan-Meier estimator is a non-parametric method used to estimate the survival function from time-to-event data. In medical research, it is frequently employed to measure the proportion of patients surviving for a certain period after treatment. This estimator is fundamental in analyzing time-to-event data, making it indispensable in clinical trials, epidemiological studies, and reliability engineering. By estimating survival probabilities, researchers can evaluate treatment effectiveness,...
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Provisional Mortality Data - United States, 2022.

Farida B Ahmad1, Jodi A Cisewski1, Jiaquan Xu1

  • 1National Center for Health Statistics, CDC.

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|May 4, 2023
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Provisional U.S. mortality data for 2022 show an estimated 5.3% decrease in the age-adjusted death rate compared to 2021. Heart disease, cancer, unintentional injuries, and COVID-19 remained leading causes of death.

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Area of Science:

  • Public Health
  • Epidemiology
  • Biostatistics

Background:

  • The National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) collects U.S. mortality data from death certificates.
  • Final mortality data are released with a delay; provisional data offer timely estimates.
  • Provisional data are crucial for understanding current mortality trends and informing public health responses.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To provide an overview of provisional U.S. mortality data for 2022.
  • To compare 2022 death rates with 2021 data.
  • To highlight leading causes of death and demographic disparities in mortality.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of provisional death certificate data collected by the NVSS.
  • Calculation of age-adjusted death rates for 2021 and 2022.
  • Identification of leading causes of death and high-risk demographic groups.

Main Results:

  • Approximately 3,273,705 deaths occurred in the U.S. in 2022.
  • The age-adjusted death rate decreased by 5.3% from 2021 to 2022 (879.7 to 832.8 per 100,000).
  • COVID-19 was associated with 244,986 deaths (7.5% of total deaths).
  • Leading causes of death were heart disease, cancer, unintentional injuries, and COVID-19.
  • Highest death rates were observed in individuals aged ≥85 years, non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native, non-Hispanic Black, and males.

Conclusions:

  • Provisional mortality data indicate a decrease in the overall death rate in 2022.
  • Significant mortality disparities persist across age, race/ethnicity, and sex.
  • Timely provisional data are essential for guiding public health interventions and policies to reduce mortality.