[Potential short-term effects of tobacco control scheme under various application scenarios of tobacco control...

Objective: based on summarizing the simulation and prediction of tobacco control measures across the globe and sorting out the various scenarios of tobacco control measures, the potential short-term effects of seven tobacco control measures in different scenarios were systematically analyzed. Methods: Until April 2022, PubMed, Embase, EconLit, PsychINFO, and CINAHL databases were used to retrieve literature about tobacco control measures simulation and prediction models across the globe. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were strictly followed. Meta-analysis for the potential short-term effects of seven tobacco control measures in different scenarios was performed using the R software. Results: A total of 22 papers covering 16 countries were selected. Five studies were conducted in the United States, three in Mexico, and two in Italy. There were all papers with the measures to tax increases, smoke-free air laws, and mass media campaigns, 21 papers with youth access restrictions, 20 with marketing restrictions, and 19 with cessation treatment programs and health warnings. The tax increases had diverse influences on the price elasticity of different age groups. The price elasticity in the age group 15-17 years was the highest, which was 0.044 (95%CI: 0.038-0.051). The potential short-term effects of smoke-free air laws in workplaces were higher than in restaurants and other indoor public places. The effects of youth access restrictions were greater in the age group <16 years than in the age group 16-17. The stronger the implementation of other measures, the greater the potential short-term effects. A comparison of seven tobacco control measures showed that the cessation treatment programs increase in cessation rate was the highest, 0.404 (95%CI: 0.357-0.456). The reduction in smoking rate and reduction in initiation rate of youth access restrictions strongly enforced and publicized was the highest in the age group <16 years, 0.292 (95%CI: 0.269-0.315), and 0.292 (95%CI: 0.270-0.316). Conclusions: The potential short-term effects of seven tobacco control measures in different scenarios were evaluated more accurately and objectively through Meta-analysis. In the short term, cessation treatment programs will substantially increase smoking cessation rates, and strong youth access enforcement will sharply reduce smoking and initiation rates among adolescents under 16. These results also offer strong data-related support for the simulation and prediction of tobacco control measures in China and other countries.