On-farm evaluation of models to predict herbage intake of dairy cows grazing temperate semi-natural grasslands

The objective of the present on-farm study was to evaluate the adequacy of existing models in predicting the pasture herbage DM intake (PDMI) of lactating dairy cows grazing semi-natural grasslands. The prediction adequacy of 13 empirical and semi-mechanistic models, which were predominantly developed to represent stall-fed cows or cows grazing high-quality pastures, were evaluated using the mean bias, relative prediction error (RPE), and partitioning of mean square error of prediction, where models with an RPE ≤ 20% were considered adequate. The reference dataset comprised n = 233 individual animal observations from nine commercial farms in South Germany with a mean milk production, DM intake, and PDMI (arithmetic means ± one SD) of 24 kg/d, (±5.6), 21 kg/d (±3.2), and 12 kg/d (±5.1), respectively. Despite their adaptation to grazing conditions, the behaviour-based and semi-mechanistic grazing-based models had the lowest prediction adequacy among the evaluated models. Their underlying empirical equations likely did not fit the grazing and production conditions of low-input farms using semi-natural grasslands for grazing. The semi-mechanistic stall-based model Mertens II with slight modifications achieved the highest and a satisfactory modelling performance (RPE = 13.4%) when evaluated based on the mean observed PDMI, i.e., averaged across animals per farm and period (n = 28). It also allowed for the adequate prediction of PDMI on individual cows (RPE = 18.5%) that were fed < 4.8 kg DM of supplement feed per day. Nevertheless, when used to predict PDMI of individual animals receiving a high supplementation level, the model Mertens II also did not meet the threshold for an acceptable adequacy (RPE = 24.7%). It was concluded that this lack of prediction adequacy for animals receiving greater levels of supplementation was due to a lack of modelling precision, which mainly could be related to inter-animal and methodological limitations such as the lack of individually measured supplement feed intake for some cows. The latter limitation is a trade-off of the on-farm research approach of the present study, which was chosen to represent the range in feed intake of dairy cows across the diverse low-input farming systems using semi-natural grasslands for grazing.