Exploring spatial feedbacks between adaptation policies and internal migration patterns due to sea-level rise.

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Climate Change Studies
• Demography

Background:

• Climate change is causing global sea-level rise.
• Sea-level rise necessitates understanding its impact on human migration patterns.
• Socioeconomic factors and adaptation strategies influence migration intensity and spatial distribution.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify potential internal migration due to sea-level rise in the Mediterranean region by 2100.
• To analyze the influence of socioeconomic development and adaptation policies on migration.
• To explore spatial feedbacks between sea-level rise, socioeconomic factors, and migration.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a spatially-explicit model (CONCLUDE).
• Integrated sea-level rise projections, socioeconomic projections, and adaptation policy assumptions.
• Focused on the Mediterranean region as a case study.

Main Results:

• Up to 20 million internal migrants by 2100 are projected without adaptation.
• Southern and eastern Mediterranean countries face approximately three times higher migration than northern ones.
• Adaptation policies can reduce internal migrants by a factor of 1.4 to 9.
• Migration is predominantly out-migration from coastal areas and in-migration to urban settings.
• Hard protection measures may induce migration towards protected coastlines.

Conclusions:

• Sea-level rise is a significant driver of internal migration, particularly in vulnerable regions.
• Adaptation policies are crucial for mitigating migration but do not eliminate it.
• Migration patterns are robust, with a clear trend towards urbanization.
• Adaptive capacity, driven by socioeconomic development, dictates the nature of migration (proactive/reactive).
• Decision-making must integrate broader socioeconomic considerations beyond coastal protection.