Species asynchrony stabilizes productivity over 20 years in Northeast China

The stability of forest productivity can reflect the functioning of forest ecosystems. It is a crucial topic to understand the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functions in ecology. Although previous studies have made great progress in understanding the effects of diversity, species asynchrony, and other factors on community biomass and productivity, few studies have explored how these factors affect the temporal stability of productivity. In this study, we hypothesized that diversity, species asynchrony, and topography would directly or indirectly impact the temporal stability of productivity. To test this hypothesis, we used a multiple regression model and a piecewise structural equation model based on the inventory data over 20 years (5-year intervals) from 1992 to 2012 at Jingouling Forest Farm in Northeast China. Our results showed that species asynchrony was the main driving factor affecting the temporal stability of productivity. Structural diversity significantly decreased community stability, while species diversity had a nonsignificant effect on it. We found the combination of a multiple regression model and a piecewise structural equation model is an effective method for evaluating the factors that influence community stability. The effect of species asynchrony is crucial for understanding the ecological mechanisms underlying the diversity-stability relationship in mixed forests.