Decisions under uncertainty are more messy than they seem

Area of Science:

• Cognitive Science
• Neuroscience
• Philosophy of Mind

Background:

• Conviction Narrative Theory (CNT) offers a complex framework for understanding beliefs.
• Current conceptualization of CNT hinders critical evaluation and empirical testing.
• CNT overlooks the role of active engagement with the environment.

Purpose of the Study:

• To address the conceptual limitations of Conviction Narrative Theory.
• To propose a unifying theoretical account for CNT.
• To facilitate rigorous empirical testing of CNT.

Main Methods:

• Conceptual analysis of Conviction Narrative Theory.
• Development of a unifying framework based on active inference principles.
• Outlining a research program for empirical validation.

Main Results:

• Identified conceptual multifacetedness as a barrier to CNT evaluation.
• Highlighted the omission of active engagement in current CNT.
• Proposed active inference as a parsimonious and testable alternative.

Conclusions:

• Active inference provides a robust framework for understanding conviction narratives.
• Parsing mechanistic processes within CNT is crucial for empirical research.
• The proposed framework enables rigorous testing of CNT and its components.