High-stakes decisions do not require narrative conviction but narrative flexibility.

Area of Science:

• Cognitive psychology
• Decision-making science
• Behavioral economics

Background:

• Prior research suggests individuals simplify uncertain situations into single narratives for decision-making.
• This simplification is often considered adaptive under radical uncertainty.

Purpose of the Study:

• To challenge the assumption that people reduce uncertainty to a single narrative explanation.
• To propose an alternative model where maintaining multiple narrative possibilities is cognitively beneficial.

Main Methods:

• Theoretical challenge to existing assumptions.
• Development of a conceptual model.
• Analysis of cognitive processes in decision-making under uncertainty.

Main Results:

• Individuals do not necessarily reduce unclear situations to a single narrative.
• Maintaining multiple narrative possibilities is a key cognitive process.
• This process enhances cognitive flexibility and adaptive benefits.

Conclusions:

• The assumption of single narrative reduction under uncertainty is questioned.
• A model emphasizing multiple narrative maintenance offers greater cognitive flexibility.
• This approach provides a more adaptive framework for decision-making under radical uncertainty.