Technological knowledge progress: Were famous laws almost correct in developing and emerging economies?

Area of Science:

• Economics of Technology
• Innovation Studies
• Development Economics

Background:

• Established technological progress laws like Moore's Law and Wright's Law are widely accepted in developed economies.
• Their applicability to developing and emerging economies remains under-researched.
• Understanding these dynamics is crucial for fostering global technological advancement.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate whether renowned technological progress laws explain technological knowledge progression in developing and emerging economies.
• To analyze the empirical evidence using a rationalized framework and panel data.

Main Methods:

• Rationalized an existing framework (Nagy et al. 2013).
• Employed panel data analysis for 66 developing and emerging market economies (1995-2017).
• Tested the explanatory power of various technological progress laws.

Main Results:

• Mixed empirical evidence regarding the relationship between time and technological knowledge progress.
• Some laws indicate a positive correlation, while others suggest learning delays (18 years) or rapid future progress doubling (4-5 years).
• Explanatory power varied; most laws supported the hypothesis that variables affect progress, but some did not support cumulative GDP per capita's role.

Conclusions:

• Technological progress laws offer partial explanations for developing economies, with significant variations.
• Policy implications are discussed to address constraints and enhance technological knowledge progress in these nations.
• Further research is needed to refine models for diverse economic contexts.