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Validity of forensic cartridge-case comparisons.

Max Guyll1, Stephanie Madon1, Yueran Yang2

  • 1School of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Arizona State University, Glendale, AZ 85306.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|May 8, 2023
PubMed
Summary

Forensic firearm examiners achieve high accuracy in cartridge-case comparisons, but many inconclusive results complicate decision-making. Inconclusive findings, though less frequent, still offer valuable information for determining source attribution.

Keywords:
cartridge-case comparisonsforensic examinationinconclusive decisionsprobative valuevalidity

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Area of Science:

  • Forensic Science
  • Firearms Examination

Background:

  • Cartridge-case comparison is a critical forensic technique.
  • Evaluating its accuracy and probative value under realistic conditions is essential.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess the validity and probative value of cartridge-case comparisons by trained firearm examiners.
  • To analyze the impact of inconclusive decisions on accuracy rates and evidence interpretation.

Main Methods:

  • 228 US firearm examiners evaluated cartridge-case comparisons under field conditions.
  • Difficulty was manipulated using firearms with dissimilar markings.
  • Likelihood ratios (LRs) were used to quantify probative value.

Main Results:

  • Low error rates were observed for conclusive identification/elimination decisions (over 99% accuracy).
  • Inconclusive decisions occurred in over 20% of cases, significantly lowering overall true-positive (93.4%) and true-negative (63.5%) rates.
  • Inconclusive decisions were more frequent for different-source comparisons and carried probative value.

Conclusions:

  • While conclusive decisions are highly reliable, the frequency of inconclusive results impacts the overall assessment of cartridge-case comparison validity.
  • Inconclusive decisions, particularly in more difficult comparisons, provide valuable information for determining source attribution.
  • The study highlights the need to account for inconclusive findings when evaluating forensic evidence.