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Published on: September 14, 2017
Analysis of the Effects of COVID-19 on Hip Fractures in Korea Without Lockdown: Interrupted Time Series Analysis
Suk-Yong Jang1, Yonghan Cha2, Yongwoo Kim3
1Department of Healthcare Management, Graduate School of Public Health, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea.
Background:
The purpose of this study was to investigate the change in the incidence rate, length of hospital stay (LOS), in-hospital mortality rate, and surgical method of hip fractures during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in South Korea where lockdown restrictions were not implemented.
Methods:
We calculated the expected values of the incidence of hip fractures, in-hospital mortality and LOS of hip fracture patients in 2020 (COVID period) based hip fracture database of the Korean National Health Insurance Review and Assessment (HIRA) during a 9-year period from 2011 to 2019 (pre-COVID period). A generalized estimating equation model with Poisson distribution and logarithmic link function was used to estimate adjusted annual percent change (PC) of incidence rate and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Then, we compared the annual incidence, in-hospital mortality rate and LOS in 2020 with the expected values.
Results:
The overall incidence rate of hip fracture in 2020 was not significantly different from the expected value (PC, -5%; 95% CI, -13 to 4; P = 0.280). In women, the incidence rate of hip fracture in age groups over 70 years was smaller than the predicted value (P < 0.001). The in-hospital mortality rate was not significantly different from the expected value (PC, 5%; 95% CI, -8 to 19; P = 0.461). The mean LOS was larger than the expected value by 2% (PC, 2%; 95% CI, 1 to 3; P < 0.001). In intertrochanteric fracture, the proportion of internal fixation was smaller than the predicted value by 2% (PC, -2%; 95% CI, -3 to -1; P < 0.001), and that of hemiarthroplasty was larger than the predicted value by 8% (PC, 8%; 95% CI, 4 to 14; P < 0.001).
Conclusions:
In 2020, the incidence rate of hip fracture did not significantly decrease, and in-hospital mortality rate did not significantly increase compared to the expected rates, which were projected based on the HIRA hip fracture data from 2011 to 2019. Only LOS increased slightly.
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