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Variability in excess deaths across countries with different vulnerability during 2020-2023
John P A Ioannidis1, Francesco Zonta2, Michael Levitt3
1Departments of Medicine, of Epidemiology and Population Health, of Biomedical Data Science, and of Statistics, and Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS), Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
Economically vulnerable countries experienced significantly higher excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2023) compared to less vulnerable nations. This disparity, measured by excess deaths as a proportion of expected deaths, highlights the impact of economic factors on pandemic mortality.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background:
- Excess deaths serve as a comprehensive metric for assessing the total impact of major global crises, including pandemics.
- Understanding excess death trajectories is crucial for evaluating national responses and vulnerabilities during health emergencies.
Conclusions:
- Country-level economic vulnerability, rather than the timing of pandemic onset, ultimately determined the cumulative excess death toll.
- While some countries experienced minimal excess deaths, others faced severe mortality impacts, underscoring global health inequities.
- Targeted interventions and economic support are critical for mitigating pandemic-related mortality in vulnerable populations.
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