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Updated: Jul 30, 2025
A Competent Hepatocyte Model Examining Hepatitis B Virus Entry through Sodium Taurocholate Cotransporting Polypeptide as a Therapeutic Target
Published on: May 10, 2022
Hepatocellular carcinoma prediction model performance decreases with long-term antiviral therapy in chronic hepatitis
Xiaoning Wu1, Xiaoqian Xu2, Jialing Zhou1
1Liver Research Center, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Beijing, Mainland of China.
Background/Aims:
Existing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction models are derived mainly from pretreatment or early on-treatment parameters. We reassessed the dynamic changes in the performance of 17 HCC models in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) during long-term antiviral therapy (AVT).
Methods:
Among 987 CHB patients administered long-term entecavir therapy, 660 patients had 8 years of follow-up data. Model scores were calculated using on-treatment values at 2.5, 3, 3.5, 4, 4.5, and 5 years of AVT to predict threeyear HCC occurrence. Model performance was assessed with the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC). The original model cutoffs to distinguish different levels of HCC risk were evaluated by the log-rank test.
Results:
The AUROCs of the 17 HCC models varied from 0.51 to 0.78 when using on-treatment scores from years 2.5 to 5. Models with a cirrhosis variable showed numerically higher AUROCs (pooled at 0.65-0.73 for treated, untreated, or mixed treatment models) than models without (treated or mixed models: 0.61-0.68; untreated models: 0.51-0.59). Stratification into low, intermediate, and high-risk levels using the original cutoff values could no longer reflect the true HCC incidence using scores after 3.5 years of AVT for models without cirrhosis and after 4 years of AVT for models with cirrhosis.
Conclusion:
The performance of existing HCC prediction models, especially models without the cirrhosis variable, decreased in CHB patients on long-term AVT. The optimization of existing models or the development of novel models for better HCC prediction during long-term AVT is warranted.
