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Optimal global spending for group A Streptococcus vaccine research and development
Daniel Tortorice1, Maddalena Ferranna2, David E Bloom3
1Department of Economics and Accounting, College of the Holy Cross, Worcester, MA, USA. dtortori@holycross.edu.
NPJ Vaccines
|May 15, 2023
Summary
Investing in a Group A Streptococcus (Strep A) vaccine is highly cost-effective. Optimal global spending of $33 billion could yield $1.63 trillion in benefits, representing a significant return on investment for public health.
Area of Science:
- Global health economics
- Vaccine development
- Infectious disease control
Background:
- Group A Streptococcus (Strep A) causes significant global mortality and morbidity, with 600,000 deaths and 600 million pharyngitis cases annually.
- Despite its impact, optimal funding for Strep A vaccine research and development (R&D) remains undetermined.
Purpose of the Study:
- To determine the optimal global expenditure for Strep A vaccine development.
- To quantify the potential benefits and social return on investment (ROI) of such an endeavor.
Main Methods:
- Development of a global societal model to assess optimal R&D spending for vaccines and treatments.
- Calibration of the model using disease burden, R&D success probability, project costs, and impact of successful interventions for Strep A.
Main Results:
- Optimal global spending for Strep A vaccine development is estimated at $33 billion (2020 USD).
- This investment is projected to generate $1.63 trillion (2020 USD) in benefits, yielding a real annual return of 22.3% over thirty years.
- Sensitivity analyses indicate a broad optimal spending range ($15.9–$58.5 billion) and substantial potential benefits ($1.6–$37.9 trillion) with returns from 18.0% to 48.2%.
Conclusions:
- Investment in a Strep A vaccine offers substantial societal benefits at a relatively low cost, representing a high-return public spending opportunity.
- Policy interventions, including direct funding and financial mechanisms for private sector R&D diversification, can accelerate Strep A vaccine development.
