Prognosis after Local Recurrence in Patients with Early-Stage Breast Cancer Treated without Chemotherapy

Many women with early-stage breast cancer are predicted to be at sufficiently low risk for recurrence that they may forego chemotherapy. Nevertheless, some low-risk women will experience a local recurrence, and for them the risk of death increases significantly thereafter. The utility of initiating chemotherapy at the time of local recurrence has not been adequately addressed. The purpose of this study is to identify, in a hospital-based series of patients with early-stage breast cancer who were not treated with chemotherapy, those factors which predict death post local recurrence.

We identified 135 women who were diagnosed with early-stage breast cancer (node-negative, <5 cm) and who did not receive chemotherapy at diagnosis and who developed a local recurrence. They were diagnosed between 1987 and 2000 and treated at Women's College Hospital. For each patient, we abstracted information on the initial cancer (age at diagnosis, tumour size, tumour grade, ER status, PR status, HER2 status, lympho-vascular invasion, type of surgery, use of radiotherapy, tamoxifen and chemotherapy), the time from initial diagnosis to local recurrence and treatment at recurrence. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the ten-year actuarial risk of breast cancer death post recurrence. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate multivariate hazard ratios for the various factors.

Among the 135 women in the cohort, the mean time from initial diagnosis to local recurrence was 7.8 years (range: 0.3 to 22.6 years). A total of 38 of the 135 women (28.1%) died of breast cancer a mean of 5.3 years after experiencing the local recurrence (range: 0.3 to 17 years). The ten-year breast cancer survival post local recurrence was 71% and the 15-year survival was 65%. In a multivariate analysis, it was found that factors that were significantly associated with death after local recurrence were (1) PR-negative status, (2) young age at diagnosis (<40 years) and (3) time to local recurrence less than 2 years. Nine percent of women received chemotherapy at the time of local recurrence.

For breast cancer patients with a low baseline risk of mortality, the risk of death after an isolated local recurrence is substantial. Systemic treatment at the time of local recurrence needs further study.