Predictors of Conversion to Dementia in Patients With Mild Cognitive Impairment: The Role of Low Body Temperature

Subjects with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) can progress to dementia. Studies have shown that neuropsychological tests, biological or radiological markers individually or in combination have helped to determine the risk of conversion from MCI to dementia. These techniques are complex and expensive, and clinical risk factors were not considered in these studies. This study examined demographic, lifestyle and clinical factors including low body temperature that may play a role in the conversion of MCI to dementia in elderly patients.

In this retrospective study, a chart review was conducted on patients aged 61 to 103 years who were seen at the University of Alberta Hospital. Information on onset of MCI and demographic, social, and lifestyle factors, family history of dementia and clinical factors, and current medications at baseline was collected from patient charts on an electronic database. The conversion from MCI to dementia within 5.5 years was also determined. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify the baseline factors associated with conversion from MCI to dementia.

The prevalence of MCI at baseline was 25.6% (335/1,330). During the 5.5 years follow-up period, 43% (143/335) of the subjects converted to dementia from MCI. The factors that were significantly associated with conversion from MCI to dementia were family history of dementia (odds ratio (OR): 2.78, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.56 - 4.95, P = 0.001), Montreal cognitive assessment (MoCA) score (OR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.85 - 0.97, P = 0.01), and low body temperature (below 36 °C) (OR: 10.01, 95% CI: 3.59 - 27.88, P < 0.001).

In addition to family history of dementia and MoCA, low body temperature was shown to be associated with the conversion from MCI to dementia. This study would help clinicians to identify patients with MCI who are at highest risk of conversion to dementia.