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Projecting the future: modelling Australian dialysis prevalence 2021-30
Dominic Keuskamp1, Christopher E Davies1, Georgina L Irish2
1Australia & New Zealand Dialysis & Transplant Registry, South Australian Health & Medical Research Institute, Adelaide, SA, Australia; and Faculty of Health & Medical Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia.
Summary
The number of Australians on dialysis is projected to grow by up to 30% by 2030, with the greatest increase in those aged 70 and over. This highlights an urgent need for increased healthcare services and funding.
Area of Science:
- Nephrology and Public Health
- Health Services Research
- Epidemiological Modeling
Background:
- Kidney disease prevalence is increasing globally.
- Accurate projections of dialysis demand are crucial for healthcare planning and resource allocation.
- Australia's aging population presents unique challenges for chronic disease management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project the prevalence of dialysis patients in Australia from 2021 to 2030.
- To inform Australian health policy and service planning for kidney disease.
- To assess the impact of varying kidney transplant rates on future dialysis demand.
Main Methods:
- Utilized data from the Australia & New Zealand Dialysis & Transplant (ANZDATA) Registry and Australian Bureau of Statistics (2011-2020).
- Developed discrete-time, non-homogenous Markov models to project populations in Dialysis, Functioning Transplant, and Death states.
- Modeled transitions across five age groups under stable and increasing kidney transplant rate scenarios.
Main Results:
- Projected a 22.5-30.4% increase in the dialysis population by 2030 (17,829-18,973 individuals).
- Anticipated an additional 4,983-6,484 functioning kidney transplants by 2030.
- Observed increased dialysis incidence and prevalence growth exceeding population aging in the 40-69 year age groups, with the highest growth in those aged ≥70 years.
Conclusions:
- Dialysis service demand in Australia is projected to rise significantly, particularly among older adults (≥70 years).
- The findings underscore the necessity for robust healthcare funding and strategic planning to meet future demand.
- Effective management of kidney disease requires proactive service development and policy adjustments.
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