Conditional survival in multiple myeloma and impact of prognostic factors over time

Overall survival estimates from diagnosis are valuable for guiding treatment, but do not consider the years already survived. Conditional survival (CS) provides dynamic survival predictions over time. This study was conducted to estimate CS at 1-8 years from diagnosis and the impact of baseline prognostic factors on CS in multiple myeloma (MM) patients. This is a retrospective study including 2556 MM patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2019. CS (t | s) was defined as the probability of surviving t years given survival of s years. Median age was 64 years. Median follow-up was 6.2 years and median overall survival from diagnosis was 7.5 years. The 5-year CS estimates at s = 0, 1, 2, 3, and 5 years were 0.64, 0.61, 0.61, 0.61, and 0.58, respectively. On multivariate analysis, age ≥ 65 and proteasome inhibitor+immunomodulatory-based induction were associated with decreased survival and increased survival, respectively, retained at 5 years. The adverse impact of 1q gain/amplification, high-risk IgH translocation, and ISS-3 was significant at 1 and 3 years but not 5 years. Chromosome 17 abnormality was associated with decreased survival only at 1 year. Among MM patients, 5-year CS was stable at 1-5 years from diagnosis. The prognostic impact of high-risk cytogenetic factors decreased with additional years survived.