The Optimal Cutoff Value of Tumor Markers for Prognosis Prediction in Ampullary Cancer

Carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA 19-9) is a representative tumor marker used for the diagnosis of pancreatic and biliary tract cancers. There are few published research results that can be applied to actual clinical practice for ampullary cancer (AC) alone. This study aimed to demonstrate the relationship between the prognosis of AC and the level of CA 19-9, and to determine the optimal thresholds.

Patients who underwent curative resection (pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) or pylorus preserving pancreaticoduodenectomy (PPPD)) for AC at the Seoul National University Hospital between January 2000 and December 2017 were enrolled. To determine the optimal cutoff values that could clearly stratify the survival outcome, the conditional inference tree (C-tree) method was used. After obtaining the optimal cutoff values, they were compared to the upper normal clinical limit of 36 U/mL for CA 19-9. Results In total, 385 patients were enrolled in this study. The median value of the tumor marker CA 19-9 was 18.6 U/mL. Using the C-tree method, 46 U/mL was determined to be the optimal cutoff value for CA 19-9. Histological differentiation, N stage, and adjuvant chemotherapy were significant predictors. CA 19-9 36 U/mL had marginal significance as a prognostic factor. In contrast, the new cutoff value, CA 19-9 46 U/mL, was found to be a statistically significant prognostic factor (HR: 1.37, p = 0.048).

The new cutoff value of CA 19-9 46 U/mL may be used for evaluating the prognosis of AC. Therefore, it may be an effective indicator for determining treatment strategies such as surgical treatments and adjuvant chemotherapy.