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An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
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The Two-Margin Problem in Insurance Markets.

Michael Geruso1, Timothy J Layton2, Grace McCormack3

  • 1University of Texas at Austin and NBER.

The Review of Economics and Statistics
|May 16, 2023
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study introduces a new framework to analyze consumer choices in insurance markets, considering both plan selection and enrollment decisions. Policies addressing one choice often create trade-offs impacting prices, enrollment, and overall welfare.

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Area of Science:

  • Health Economics
  • Insurance Market Dynamics
  • Consumer Behavior Analysis

Background:

  • Insurance markets exhibit consumer sorting on both extensive (purchase decision) and intensive (plan choice) margins.
  • Existing models often analyze these margins separately, limiting a comprehensive understanding of consumer behavior and policy impacts.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a unified graphical theoretical framework integrating both extensive and intensive margins of consumer selection in insurance markets.
  • To analyze the inherent trade-offs in policies targeting one selection margin on outcomes like prices, enrollment, and welfare.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a novel graphical theoretical framework extending standard workhorse models.
  • Application of an empirical sufficient statistics approach using data from Massachusetts.
  • Linking the empirical analysis directly to the theoretical graphical framework.

Main Results:

  • Policies addressing consumer selection on one margin (extensive or intensive) create significant economic trade-offs on the other.
  • These trade-offs manifest in changes to insurance prices, enrollment levels, and overall consumer welfare.
  • The graphical framework provides a clear visualization of these complex interactions.

Conclusions:

  • A simultaneous analysis of both selection margins is crucial for understanding insurance market dynamics.
  • Policy interventions require careful consideration of potential unintended consequences on the unaddressed selection margin.
  • The developed framework offers a valuable tool for both theoretical analysis and empirical investigation of insurance markets.