Global Prevalence of Prediabetes.

Area of Science:

• Endocrinology and Metabolism
• Public Health
• Epidemiology

Background:

• Prediabetes, characterized by impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) or impaired fasting glucose (IFG), affects a significant portion of the global adult population.
• Estimating the true global, regional, and national prevalence of prediabetes is crucial for understanding its burden and developing targeted interventions.

Approach:

• A comprehensive review of 7,014 publications was conducted to identify high-quality prevalence data for IGT and IFG.
• Logistic regression models were employed to estimate 2021 prevalence and project 2045 figures for adults aged 20-79.
• Extrapolation methods were used for countries lacking direct data, based on similar demographic and economic factors.

Key Points:

• In 2021, global IGT prevalence was 9.1% (464 million), projected to rise to 10.0% (638 million) by 2045.
• Global IFG prevalence was 5.8% (298 million) in 2021, expected to increase to 6.5% (414 million) by 2045.
• High-income countries exhibited the highest prevalence in 2021, but low-income countries are projected to experience the largest relative growth in cases.

Conclusions:

• The global burden of prediabetes is substantial and growing, posing a significant public health challenge.
• Effective diabetes prevention policies and interventions necessitate enhanced prediabetes surveillance systems worldwide.