Perceived similarity explains beliefs about possibility.

Area of Science:

• Cognitive Psychology
• Social Psychology
• Decision Making

Background:

• Human ability to conceive of future possibilities is fundamental to planning and innovation.
• Understanding the cognitive mechanisms underlying possibility judgments is crucial for predicting human behavior.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate whether perceived similarity to known events influences beliefs about the possibility of hypothetical future events.
• To compare the predictive power of perceived similarity against other factors like desirability and morality.

Main Methods:

• Six preregistered experiments involving 1,472 American adults.
• Participants rated the possibility of hypothetical future events.
• Analysis focused on the relationship between possibility ratings and perceived similarity to past events, desirability, and morality.

Main Results:

• Confidence in the possibility of future events was strongly predicted by perceived similarity to past events.
• Perceived similarity was a better predictor than desirability or moral considerations.
• Similarity to past events outperformed counterfactual similarity and similarity to fictional events.

Conclusions:

• Perceptions of similarity to known past events are a primary driver of beliefs about future possibilities.
• Individuals may rely on accessible memories of past events to make inferences about what is possible.
• Findings suggest a heuristic process where similarity guides possibility judgments.