Multi-study evaluation of neuroimaging-based prediction of medication class in mood disorders

Clinicians often face a dilemma in diagnosing bipolar disorder patients with complex symptoms who spend more time in a depressive state than a manic state. The current gold standard for such diagnosis, the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (DSM), is not objectively grounded in pathophysiology. In such complex cases, relying solely on the DSM may result in misdiagnosis as major depressive disorder (MDD). A biologically-based classification algorithm that can accurately predict treatment response may help patients suffering from mood disorders. Here we used an algorithm to do so using neuroimaging data. We used the neuromark framework to learn a kernel function for support vector machine (SVM) on multiple feature subspaces. The neuromark framework achieves up to 95.45% accuracy, 0.90 sensitivity, and 0.92 specificity in predicting antidepressant (AD) vs. mood stabilizer (MS) response in patients. We incorporated two additional datasets to evaluate the generalizability of our approach. The trained algorithm achieved up to 89% accuracy, 0.88 sensitivity, and 0.89 specificity in predicting the DSM-based diagnosis on these datasets. We also translated the model to distinguish responders to treatment from nonresponders with up to 70% accuracy. This approach reveals multiple salient biomarkers of medication-class of response within mood disorders.