Prediction of COVID-19 Mortality in the Intensive Care Unit Using Machine Learning

Since its emergence, the COVID-19 pandemic still poses a major global health threat. In this setting, a number of useful machine learning applications have been explored to assist clinical decision-making, predict the severity of disease and admission to the intensive care unit, and also to estimate future demand for hospital beds, equipment, and staff. The present study examined demographic data, hematological and biochemical markers routinely measured in Covid-19 patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of a public tertiary hospital, in relation to the ICU outcome, during the second and third Covid-19 waves, from October 2020 until February 2022. In this dataset, we applied eight well-known classifiers of the caret package for machine learning of the R programming language, to evaluate their performance in forecasting ICU mortality. The best performance regarding area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) was observed with Random Forest (0.82), while k-nearest neighbors (k-NN) were the lowest performing machine learning algorithm (AUC-ROC: 0.59). However, in terms of sensitivity, XGB outperformed the other classifiers (max Sens: 0.7). The six most important predictors of mortality in the Random Forest model were serum urea, age, hemoglobin, C-reactive protein, platelets, and lymphocyte count.