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In statistical epidemiology and health sciences, two essential metrics—prevalence and incidence—are fundamental for understanding disease dynamics within a population. These measures enable public health officials, epidemiologists, and researchers to assess the burden of diseases, allocate resources effectively, and design impactful public health policies and interventions.
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If the frequency distribution of a data set is more inclined towards smaller or larger values, the distribution is said to be skewed. If data values are skewed to the right, then the distribution is called positively skewed. Conversely, if the plot is skewed to the left, the distribution is called negatively skewed.
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Pareto Chart00:52

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A Pareto chart is a bar graph or a combination of both line and bar graphs. The bar lengths represent the individual values or the frequency, while the lines represent the cumulative total values. In this chart, the longest bars are arranged on the left and the shortest bars on the right, which makes it easier to read and interpret the data. It can also be called a Pareto diagram or Pareto analysis.
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Covid-19 Rates by Time since Vaccination during Delta Variant Predominance.

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Protection against COVID-19 waned over time, increasing infection and death risks, especially for older adults. Booster shots are recommended, particularly for those vaccinated earlier with Pfizer-BioNTech or Johnson & Johnson vaccines.

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Infectious Diseases
  • Vaccinology

Background:

  • The Delta variant surge in the US in 2021 highlighted the need to understand COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness over time.
  • Waning immunity is a critical factor in breakthrough infections and mortality.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate the risk of COVID-19 breakthrough infection and death based on vaccination month during Delta variant predominance.
  • To assess the impact of time since vaccination on vaccine effectiveness.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized COVID-19 case and death data from 15 US jurisdictions (January 3 - September 4, 2021).
  • Estimated weekly hazard rates for fully vaccinated individuals, stratified by age and vaccine product.
  • Employed Poisson models to compare infection and death rates across vaccination cohorts.

Main Results:

  • Individuals vaccinated 6+ months prior faced significantly higher risks of infection (3.44x) and death (1.70x) compared to those vaccinated in July 2021.
  • BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) recipients aged 65+ showed increased death rates with longer intervals since vaccination.
  • mRNA-1273 (Moderna) recipients demonstrated sustained protection against death, while Ad26.COV2.S (Janssen-Johnson & Johnson) showed higher rates with inconsistent trends.

Conclusions:

  • Vaccine protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection and death (in older adults) wanes over time, particularly during Delta variant circulation.
  • Findings support US booster recommendations, especially for older adults and recipients of BNT162b2 and Ad26.COV2.S vaccines.