An integrated model chain for future flood risk prediction under land-use changes.

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Geographic Information Science
• Risk Management

Background:

• Floods are destructive natural disasters significantly influenced by land-use change.
• Existing flood risk models often overlook the impact of land-use change, reducing prediction accuracy.
• Comprehensive flood risk modeling that incorporates land-use change is crucial for effective mitigation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and apply an integrated model chain for comprehensive flood risk assessment.
• To simulate future land-use changes and their impact on flood risk.
• To provide insights into spatiotemporal flood risk dynamics for targeted mitigation.

Main Methods:

• Coupling of the Markov-FLUS model for land-use simulation.
• Integration of multiple linear regression and an improved TOPSIS model for risk assessment.
• Application of the model chain in Guangdong Province for future flood risk prediction.

Main Results:

• The coupled model chain accurately predicts flood risk under different scenarios, quantified by the Flood Risk Composite Index (FRCI).
• Under a natural growth scenario, flood risk is projected to increase significantly by 2030, with high-risk zones expanding.
• An ecological protection scenario demonstrated a stabilizing trend in flood risk, offering a potential alternative development path.

Conclusions:

• The integrated model chain provides valuable insights into spatiotemporal flood risk characteristics.
• Dynamic flood risk information can facilitate the development of targeted and effective flood mitigation strategies.
• Future research should consider incorporating climate factors and more advanced spatialization models.