Physician density: will we ever close the gap?

Area of Science:

• Health Economics
• Global Health Policy
• Econometrics

Background:

• Physician density is vital for health system functionality.
• Previous studies examined factors influencing physician supply but not convergence patterns.
• Understanding physician density convergence is key to addressing global health disparities.

Purpose of the Study:

• To test for club convergence in physician density across 204 countries from 1990 to 2019.
• To identify patterns of physician density distribution globally.
• To document potential long-lasting disparities in physician distribution.

Main Methods:

• Employed a nonlinear time-varying factor model to identify country groupings (clubs) with similar physician density trajectories.
• Analyzed data from 204 countries between 1990 and 2019.
• Utilized a clustering algorithm to determine distinct convergence patterns.

Main Results:

• No evidence of global convergence in physician density was found.
• Three distinct convergence clubs were identified.
• Significant disparities persist, with North and Sub-Saharan African countries showing persistently low physician density, below the Universal Health Coverage Services Index threshold.

Conclusions:

• Global physician density is not converging towards uniform levels.
• Persistent disparities in physician distribution are evident, particularly impacting African regions.
• Findings underscore the need for targeted investment in human resources for health, aligning with WHO strategies.