Physician density: will we ever close the gap?

Physician density is a crucial element of a well-functioning health system. Previous research has investigated factors affecting country-level physician supply. To date, however, no evidence has been provided about the patterns of convergence in physician density among countries. This paper thus tested club convergence in physician density in 204 countries worldwide from 1990 to 2019. A nonlinear time-varying factor model was adopted to identify potential clubs, wherein groups of countries tend to converge towards the same level of physician density. Our primary purpose was to document the potential long-lasting disparity in future global physician distribution.

Despite physician density increasing in all regions globally from 1990 to 2019, we found no evidence in favor of the hypothesis of global convergence. Conversely, the clustering algorithm successfully identified three main patterns (i.e., three final clubs). With few exceptions, the results indicated an uneven physician distribution between the majority of North and Sub-Saharan African countries (where physician density would remain well below the estimated threshold of at least 70% of the Universal Health Coverage Services Index) and the rest of the world. These findings support the WHO's global strategy to reverse the chronic under-investment in human resources for health.