Prognostic predictors for recurrence following curative resection in grade I/II pancreatic neuroendocrine tumours

Pancreatic neuroendocrine tumours (pNETs) have an excellent long-term survival after resection, but are associated with a high recurrence rate. Identification of prognostic factors affecting recurrences would enable identifying subgroup of patients at higher risk of recurrences, who may benefit from more aggressive treatment.

A retrospective analysis of prospectively maintained database of patients undergoing pancreatectomy with curative intent for grade I and II pNETs between July 2007 and June 2021 was performed. Perioperative and long-term outcomes were analysed.

A total of 68 resected patients of pNETs were included in this analysis. Fifty-two patients (76.47%) underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy, 10 (14.7%) patients had distal pancreatectomy, and 2 (2.9%) patients underwent median pancreatectomy, while enucleation was performed in 4 patients (5.8%). The overall major morbidity (Clavien-Dindo III/IV) and mortality rates were 33.82% and 2.94%, respectively. At a median follow-up period of 48 months, 22 (32.35%) patients had disease recurrence. The 5-year overall survival and 5-year recurrence-free survival (RFS) rates were 90.2% and 60.8%, respectively. While OS was unaffected by different prognostic factors, multivariate analysis showed that lymph node involvement, Ki-67 index ≥5%, and presence of perineural invasion (PNI) were independently associated with recurrence.

While surgical resection gives excellent overall survival in grade I/II pNETs, lymph node positivity, higher Ki-67 index, and PNI are associated with a high risk for recurrence. Patients with these characteristics should be stratified as high risk and evaluated for more intensive follow-up and aggressive treatment strategies in future prospective studies.