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Model-estimated impacts of pediatric respiratory syncytial virus prevention programs in Mali on asthma prevalence

Justin R Ortiz1,2, Rachel S Laufer1,2, Steven M Brunwasser3,4

  • 1University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Md.

The Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology. Global
|May 22, 2023
PubMed

Insights

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) lower respiratory tract infections in children contribute to recurrent wheeze/asthma. RSV prevention strategies, including monoclonal antibodies and vaccines, show potential to significantly reduce these chronic respiratory conditions in Mali.

Area of Science:

  • Pediatric infectious diseases
  • Respiratory health
  • Public health interventions

Background:

  • Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a primary cause of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) in young children.
  • RSV infection is linked to the development of recurrent wheezing and asthma in childhood.
  • Preventing RSV may decrease the incidence of subsequent wheeze and asthma.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantify the impact of RSV LRTI on recurrent wheeze/asthma in Mali.
  • To evaluate the effectiveness of different RSV prevention strategies on wheeze/asthma prevalence.

Main Methods:

  • Simulation of 12 monthly birth cohorts in Mali, tracking RSV LRTI cases up to age 2 and wheeze/asthma prevalence up to age 6.
  • Modeling of three scenarios: status quo, seasonal extended half-life mAb, and mAb plus pediatric vaccine.
  • Utilized WHO Preferred Product Characteristics, Malian demographic and epidemiological data, and relative risk estimates.

Main Results:

  • RSV LRTI was estimated to cause 13.4% of all recurrent wheeze/asthma cases at age 6.
  • The monoclonal antibody (mAb) scenario reduced RSV LRTI by 11.8% and total wheeze/asthma by 1.6%.
  • The mAb + vaccine scenario reduced RSV LRTI by 44.4% and total wheeze/asthma by 5.9%.

Conclusions:

  • RSV prevention programs can significantly impact chronic respiratory diseases in Mali.
  • Investing in RSV prevention is supported by the potential reduction in wheeze/asthma prevalence.
  • These findings underscore the public health importance of RSV control in pediatric populations.
Abstract

Keywords:
MaliRespiratory syncytial virus (RSV)asthmaglobal healthimmunoprophylaxislower respiratory tract infectionpediatrics

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