On modeling the correlates of conspiracy thinking

Area of Science:

• Social Psychology
• Political Psychology
• Computational Social Science

Background:

• Extensive research exists on conspiracy theory beliefs but less on the general predisposition to interpret events as conspiracies.
• A generalized predisposition towards conspiracy thinking influences belief formation and information processing.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the psychological, political, and social correlates of a generalized predisposition towards conspiracy thinking.
• To identify key characteristics that predict an individual's position on the conspiracy thinking spectrum.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a national survey of 2015 U.S. adults conducted in October 2020.
• Employed conditional inference tree modeling, a machine learning approach, to analyze 34 different correlates.
• Focused on prediction and identifying significant predictors of conspiracy thinking.

Main Results:

• Psychological characteristics were significantly more predictive of conspiracy thinking than political or social factors.
• Key predictors identified include anomie, Manicheanism, support for political violence, sharing false information online, populism, narcissism, and psychopathy.
• The identified correlates partially explained the variance in conspiracy thinking, indicating a complex phenomenon.

Conclusions:

• Psychological factors play a more substantial role in conspiracy thinking than previously emphasized.
• Understanding these psychological underpinnings is crucial for developing interventions against conspiracy theories.
• Future research should explore the remaining unexplained variance in conspiracy thinking.