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Updated: Jul 29, 2025
06:46
Competing-Risk Nomogram for Predicting Cancer-Specific Survival in Multiple Primary Colorectal Cancer Patients after Surgery
Published on: September 27, 2024
309
A nomogram for predicting cause-specific mortality among patients with cecal carcinoma: a study based on SEER
Qianru Zhou1,2, Yan Zhan3, Jipeng Guo3
1The Central Hospital of Wuhan, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430014, China. 401394450@qq.com.
BMC Gastroenterology
|May 23, 2023
Summary
This study developed a nomogram to predict colon cancer (CC) specific death, outperforming traditional models. It quantifies survival differences, aiding clinical decisions for CC patients.
Area of Science:
- Oncology
- Biostatistics
- Cancer Research
Background:
- Classical Cox models overestimate event probability in competing risk scenarios.
- Quantitative evaluation of competing risk data in colon cancer (CC) is lacking.
- Accurate survival prediction is crucial for effective CC patient management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the probability of CC-specific death.
- To construct a predictive nomogram for CC patient survival.
- To quantify survival differences among CC patients using a robust model.
Main Methods:
- Utilized SEER database data from 2010-2015 for colon cancer (CC) patients.
- Employed Fine-Gray models for univariate and multivariate analyses to identify predictors of cause-specific death.
- Developed and validated a nomogram using training (70%) and validation (30%) datasets, assessing performance with ROC and calibration curves.
Main Results:
- Identified pathological subtypes, grading, AJCC stage, T-staging, surgical type, lymph node surgery, chemotherapy, tumor deposits, and metastases as independent risk factors for CC death.
- The AJCC stage demonstrated the strongest predictive ability.
- The nomogram achieved high predictive performance with a C-index of 0.848 (training) and 0.847 (validation), and AUCs ranging from 0.841 to 0.862 across 1-5 years.
Conclusions:
- The developed nomogram offers excellent and robust predictive performance for colon cancer (CC) specific mortality.
- This tool can significantly aid clinicians in making informed treatment decisions.
- Provides enhanced support for patients by offering more accurate survival prognoses.
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