Predicting metastasis at initial diagnosis and radiotherapy effectiveness in patients with metastatic osteosarcoma

Osteosarcoma is a primary malignant bone tumor affecting mostly children and adolescents. The overall 10 year survivals of patients with metastatic osteosarcoma are typically less than 20% in the literature and remain concerning. We aimed to develop a nomogram for predicting the risk of metastasis at initial diagnosis in patients with osteosarcoma and evaluate the effectiveness of radiotherapy in patients with metastatic osteosarcoma. Clinical and demographic data of patients with osteosarcoma were collected from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results database. We randomly split our analytical sample into the training and validation cohorts, then established and validated a nomogram for predicting the risk of osteosarcoma metastasis at initial diagnosis. The effectiveness of radiotherapy was evaluated by performing propensity score matching in patients underwent surgery + chemotherapy and those underwent surgery + chemotherapy + radiotherapy, among patients with metastatic osteosarcoma. 1439 patients met the inclusion criteria and were included in this study. 343 of 1439 had osteosarcoma metastasis by the time of initial presentation. A nomogram for predicting the likelihood of osteosarcoma metastasis by the time of initial presentation was developed. In both unmatched and matched samples, the radiotherapy group demonstrated a superior survival profile comparing with the non-radiotherapy group. Our study established a novel nomogram to evaluate the risk of osteosarcoma with metastasis, and demonstrated that radiotherapy combined with chemotherapy and surgical resection could improve 10-year survival in patients with metastasis. These findings may guide the clinical decision-making for orthopedic surgeons.