Does a longer sexual resume affect marriage rates?

Area of Science:

• Sociology
• Demography
• Family Studies

Background:

• Sociologists propose demographic, economic, and cultural factors for declining US marriage rates.
• A controversial theory suggests multiple non-marital sex partners reduce marriage incentives and desirability.
• Previous research linked premarital partners to lower marital quality, but not marriage rates.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the association between the number of non-marital sex partners and marriage rates.
• To determine if this association is temporary or reflects lifetime partner counts.
• To assess the causal impact of non-marital sexual behavior on marriage formation.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of four waves of the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG).
• Prospective analysis of seventeen waves of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) 1997 cohort data (through 2015).
• Bivariate probit models to assess the short-term association and potential causality.

Main Results:

• NSFG data suggested more sex partners correlated with lower marriage likelihood, but this was potentially misleading.
• NLSY data revealed that only recent non-marital sex partners, not lifetime, temporarily predicted lower odds of marriage.
• The short-term association between recent partners and marriage rates likely reflects a causal effect.

Conclusions:

• The impact of multiple non-marital sex partners on marriage rates is temporary and "seasonal."
• Findings challenge theories linking casual sex availability to the overall retreat from marriage.
• Recent sexual behavior, rather than cumulative history, influences short-term marriage prospects.