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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
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Using machine learning to predict processes and morphometric features of watershed.

Marzieh Mokarram1, Hamid Reza Pourghasemi2, John P Tiefenbacher3

  • 1Department of Geography, Faculty of Economics, Management and Social Sciences, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran. m.mokarram@shirazu.ac.ir.

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|May 25, 2023
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Summary

This study uses machine learning to classify alluvial fan morphometry and predict erosion rates. Key morphometric features like fan length and area were identified as crucial for understanding formation material and erosion.

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Area of Science:

  • Geomorphology
  • Machine Learning
  • GIS

Background:

  • Alluvial fans are critical landforms shaped by erosion and deposition.
  • Understanding their morphometric properties is essential for predicting geological processes.
  • Previous studies often lack robust quantitative analysis of these relationships.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To classify alluvial fan morphometric properties using the Self-Organizing Map (SOM) algorithm.
  • To determine the relationship between morphometric characteristics, erosion rate, and lithology using the Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) algorithm.
  • To identify key morphometric parameters influencing fan formation material and erosion.

Main Methods:

  • Semi-automatic extraction of alluvial fans using GIS and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) analysis.
  • Application of SOM for classifying morphometric features and identifying relationships.
  • Utilizing feature selection algorithms (PCA, Greedy, Best First, Genetic, Random Search) to pinpoint important parameters.
  • Employing GMDH for predicting formation material and erosion rates.

Main Results:

  • The semi-automatic GIS method successfully detected alluvial fans.
  • SOM identified fan length, minimum height, and minimum slope as key factors for formation material.
  • Fan area and minimum fan height were identified as primary drivers of erosion.
  • Feature selection highlighted specific morphometric parameters for material and erosion prediction.
  • GMDH achieved high accuracy in predicting fan formation materials (R²=0.94) and erosion rates (R²=0.87).

Conclusions:

  • Machine learning algorithms, particularly SOM and GMDH, are effective tools for analyzing alluvial fan morphometry and predicting geological processes.
  • Specific morphometric characteristics significantly influence alluvial fan formation material and erosion rates.
  • The study provides a quantitative framework for understanding and predicting geomorphic evolution in arid and semi-arid regions.