Projections of National-Gridded Emissions of Hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs) in China

Hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs) are being used as substitutes for potent greenhouse gas hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). However, the use and environmental impacts of HFOs are of great concern due to the rapid degradation of HFOs to produce persistent and phytotoxic trifluoroacetic acid (TFA). Here, we provide a comprehensive projection of HFO emissions in China during 2024-2060 for the first time. Under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, China's HFO emissions are estimated to increase from 1.7 (1.3-2.3) to 148.8 (111.4-185.4) kt in 2024-2060 with cumulative emissions of 2.8 (2.0-3.5) Gt, and cumulative reduced HFCs emissions are evaluated to be 5.4 Gt CO₂-equivalent. High HFO emissions would be distributed mainly in the North China Plain and the eastern and coastal areas. HFO-1234yf (2,3,3,3-tetrafluoropropene) contributes most of HFO emissions with a cumulative emission of 1.7 Gt in 2024-2060, while the cumulative increment of TFA deposition from HFO-1234yf emissions would reach 0.4-1.0 Gt. The long-term national-gridded HFO emission inventories can provide scientific support for evaluating the environmental risks of HFOs and developing HFC phase-out pathways for addressing climate change.