Mortality burden due to ambient nitrogen dioxide pollution in China: Application of high-resolution models

A large gap exists between the latest Global Air Quality Guidelines (AQG 2021) and Chinese air quality standards for NO₂. Assessing whether and to what extent air quality standards for NO₂ should be tightened in China requires a comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal characteristics of population exposure to ambient NO₂ and related health risks, which have not been studied to date.

We predicted ground NO₂ concentrations with high resolution in mainland China, explored exposure characteristics to NO₂ pollution, and assessed the mortality burden attributable to NO₂ exposure.

Daily NO₂ concentrations in 2019 were predicted at 1-km spatial resolution in mainland China using random forest models incorporating multiple predictors. From these high-resolution predictions, we explored the spatiotemporal distribution of NO₂, population and area percentages with NO₂ exposure exceeding criterion levels, and premature deaths attributable to long- and short-term NO₂ exposure in China.

The cross-validation R²and root mean squared error of the NO₂ predicting model were 0.80 and 7.78 μg/m³, respectively,at the daily level in 2019.The percentage of people (population number) with annual NO₂ exposure over 40 μg/m³ in mainland China in 2019 was 10.40 % (145,605,200), and it reached 99.68 % (1,395,569,840) with the AQG guideline value of 10 μg/m³. NO₂ levels and population exposure risk were elevated in urban areas than in rural. Long- and short-term exposures to NO₂ were associated with 285,036 and 121,263 non-accidental deaths, respectively, in China in 2019. Tightening standards in steps gradually would increase the potential health benefit.

In China, NO₂ pollution is associated with significant mortality burden. Spatial disparities exist in NO₂ pollution and exposure risks. China's current air quality standards may no longer objectively reflect the severity of NO₂ pollution and exposure risk. Tightening the national standards for NO₂ is needed and will lead to significant health benefits.