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Global warming reduces Arctic ice, enabling shipping but creating navigation risks. This study quantifies severe bow forces on oil tankers using advanced methods, ensuring safer Arctic vessel design and operation.

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Area of Science:

  • Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering
  • Climate Change Impact Studies
  • Risk Assessment in Maritime Operations

Background:

  • Global warming is decreasing polar pack ice, opening Arctic routes for merchant vessels.
  • Despite ice reduction, fractured ice poses significant operational risks to Arctic navigation.
  • Accurate prediction of ship-ice interaction forces is crucial for vessel design and safety.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze severe bow forces experienced by an oil tanker in the Arctic Ocean.
  • To develop a methodology for anticipating extreme bow forces for extended return periods.
  • To demonstrate the application of reliability-based approaches for Arctic vessel safety.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized Finite Element Method (FEM) program ANSYS/LS-DYNA to estimate bow force distribution.
  • Employed the average conditional exceedance rate approach for predicting extreme bow forces.
  • Analyzed vessel route data in conjunction with ice thickness data for risk assessment.

Main Results:

  • Estimated the distribution of bow forces acting on an oil tanker hull.
  • Quantified extreme bow force levels associated with long return periods.
  • Identified inaccuracies in ship route data regarding encountered ice thickness.

Conclusions:

  • The study successfully demonstrates an exact reliability approach for assessing severe bow forces on Arctic-bound oil tankers.
  • Accurate anticipation of bow forces is essential for the safe design and operation of vessels in changing Arctic conditions.
  • Findings contribute to improved risk management strategies for Arctic maritime transport.