Multi-dimensional and region-specific planning for coal retirements.

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Energy Policy
• Climate Change Mitigation

Background:

• The Paris Agreement's 2°C target necessitates early coal-fired power retirement.
• Current retirement strategies primarily focus on plant age, neglecting economic and health impacts.
• A comprehensive approach is needed to balance climate goals with regional socio-economic factors.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and evaluate multi-dimensional retirement schedules for coal-fired power plants.
• To analyze how different weighting schemes (age, operating cost, air pollution) affect global retirement pathways.
• To demonstrate the need for region-specific strategies in phasing out coal power.

Main Methods:

• Introduction of multi-dimensional retirement schedules incorporating plant age, operating costs, and air pollution data.
• Comparative analysis of retirement pathways under various weighting scenarios.
• Examination of regional variations in retirement schedules, focusing on major coal-consuming economies.

Main Results:

• Retirement pathways differ significantly based on the chosen weighting criteria.
• Age-based schedules prioritize retirements in the US and EU.
• Cost- or pollution-based schedules shift near-term retirements to China and India, respectively.
• A 'one-size-fits-all' strategy is inadequate for global coal phase-out.

Conclusions:

• Region-specific retirement pathways are essential for effective coal phase-out.
• Incentives for early retirement can extend beyond climate change mitigation to address local priorities.
• The study highlights the importance of considering economic and health co-benefits in energy transition planning.
• Emerging economies play a critical role in global coal retirement strategies.