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Estimating encounter probabilities among recreational trail user groups.

Shelby McCahon1, Todd Brinkman1, Ryan Klimstra2

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A new method using trail cameras quantifies visitor encounters on multi-use trails, identifying hotspots for potential conflict. This helps manage recreational areas for better user experiences and safety.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Recreation Management
  • Spatial Analysis

Background:

  • Nature-based recreation is increasing globally, leading to greater use of multi-use trails.
  • Conflicts arise from perceived negative encounters between different user groups on trails.
  • Winter recreation in Alaska presents unique challenges for managing trail interactions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a spatially and temporally explicit method for estimating trail occupancy and encounter probabilities among diverse user groups.
  • To identify high-risk areas and times for potential conflict on winter multi-use trails.
  • To provide a transferable methodology for recreational trail management.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized trail cameras with optic alteration for non-invasive monitoring of winter recreational activity (November 2019 - April 2020).
  • Classified users into motor-powered, dog-powered, and human-powered groups.
  • Applied probability rules to estimate user group occupancy and encounter probabilities, scaled spatially and temporally.

Main Results:

  • Identified activity hotspots, particularly near trail access points.
  • Determined peak activity times (14:00-15:00), days (weekends), and months (December, February, March) with higher encounter potential.
  • Quantified overlap in activity between user groups, indicating potential conflict zones.

Conclusions:

  • The developed method offers a quantitative, objective, and non-invasive approach for trail managers.
  • This methodology can be adapted to various recreational trail systems to address congestion and conflict.
  • Informed management strategies can improve visitor satisfaction and trail safety.