Prediction for recurrence following antithyroid drug therapy for Graves' hyperthyroidism

A common problem with antithyroid drugs (ATD) treatment in patients with Graves' disease (GD) is the high recurrence rate after drug withdrawal. Identifying risk factors for recurrence is crucial in clinical practice. We hereby prospectively analyze risk factors for the recurrence of GD in patients treated with ATD in southern China.

Patients who were newly diagnosed with GD and aged > 18 years were treated with ATD for 18 months and followed up for 1 year after ATD withdrawal. Recurrence of GD during follow-up was assessed. All data were analyzed by Cox regression with P values < 0.05 considered statistically significant.

A total of 127 Graves' hyperthyroidism patients were included. During an average follow-up of 25.7 (standard deviation = 8.7) months, 55 (43%) had a recurrence within 1 year after withdraw of anti-thyroid drugs. After adjustment for potential confounding factors, the significant association remained for the presence of insomnia (hazard ratio (HR) 2.94, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.47-5.88), greater goiter size (HR 3.34, 95% CI 1.11-10.07), higher thyrotrophin receptor antibody (TRAb) titer (HR 2.66, 95% CI 1.12-6.31) and a higher maintenance dose of methimazole (MMI) (HR 2.14, 95% CI 1.14-4.00).

Besides conventional risk factors (i.e., goiter size, TRAb and maintenance MMI dose) for recurrent GD after ATD withdraw, insomnia was associated with a 3-fold risk of recurrence. Further clinical trials investigating the beneficial effect of improving sleep quality on prognosis of GD are warranted.