Evolutionary rescue in a fluctuating environment: periodic versus quasi-periodic environmental changes

Area of Science:

• Evolutionary biology
• Ecology
• Population dynamics

Background:

• Environmental changes impact population survival and evolutionary trajectories.
• Evolutionary rescue is a critical process where populations adapt to survive environmental challenges.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate evolutionary rescue dynamics in fluctuating environments.
• To model the effects of environmental stochasticity on population survival and adaptation.

Main Methods:

• Development of a stochastic eco-evolutionary model incorporating population dynamics and genetics.
• Derivation of analytical predictions for extinction time, rescue probability, and mutant appearance time.
• Validation of model predictions using numerical simulations.

Main Results:

• Stochastic environmental fluctuations accelerate extinction and impede evolutionary rescue compared to deterministic fluctuations.
• High population sizes and growth rates increase the probability of evolutionary rescue.
• Imperfectly harsh environments offer rescue probabilities similar to perfectly harsh environments.

Conclusions:

• Environmental variability critically influences the success of evolutionary rescue.
• Understanding these dynamics is crucial for applications in antimicrobial resistance and conservation biology.