Temperature change effects on marine fish range shifts: A meta-analysis of ecological and methodological predictors

The current effects of global warming on marine ecosystems are predicted to increase, with species responding by changing their spatial distributions. Marine ectotherms such as fish experience elevated distribution shifts, as temperature plays a key role in physiological functions and delineating population ranges through thermal constraints. Distributional response predictions necessary for population management have been complicated by high heterogeneity in magnitude and direction of movements, which may be explained by both biological as well as methodological study differences. To date, however, there has been no comprehensive synthesis of the interacting ecological factors influencing fish distributions in response to climate change and the confounding methodological factors that can affect their estimation. In this study we analyzed published studies meeting criteria of reporting range shift responses to global warming in 115 taxa spanning all major oceanic regions, totaling 595 three-dimensional population responses (latitudinal, longitudinal, and depth), with temperature identified as a significant driver. We found that latitudinal shifts were the fastest in non-exploited, tropical populations, and inversely correlated with depth shifts which, in turn, dominated at the trailing edges of population ranges. While poleward responses increased with rate of temperature change and latitude, niche was a key factor in predicting both depth (18% of variation) and latitudinal responses (13%), with methodological predictors explaining between 10% and 28% of the observed variance in marine fish responses to temperature change. Finally, we found strong geographical publication bias and limited taxonomical scope, highlighting the need for more representative and standardized research in order to address heterogeneity in distribution responses and improve predictions in face of changing climate.