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Myopia progression risk assessment score (MPRAS): a promising new tool for risk stratification
Manoj K Manoharan1,2, Swapnil Thakur1, Rohit Dhakal1,2
1Myopia Research Lab, Prof. Brien Holden Eye Research Centre, Brien Holden Institute of Optometry and Vision Sciences, L V Prasad Eye Institute, Kallam Anji Reddy Campus, Hyderabad, Telangana, 500034, India.
Scientific Reports
|May 31, 2023
Summary
Developing a myopia progression risk assessment score (MPRAS) helps identify at-risk individuals for timely myopia management. The MPRAS models showed good agreement with clinicians in predicting myopia progression.
Area of Science:
- Ophthalmology
- Optometry
- Public Health
Background:
- Timely identification of individuals at-risk for myopia progression is crucial for effective myopia management.
- Current methods for risk assessment can be subjective and may not consistently identify all at-risk individuals.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a myopia progression risk assessment score (MPRAS) to objectively identify myopic individuals at-risk for progression.
- To compare the diagnostic ability of the MPRAS against the clinical judgment of ophthalmologists.
Main Methods:
- Two risk-score models (non-weighted and weighted) were developed using 10 risk factors.
- The ability of the MPRAS to diagnose individuals at-risk was compared with the decisions of five clinicians in 149 myopes (aged 6-29 years).
- Sub-models with a decreasing number of risk factors were analyzed to optimize the score's performance.
Main Results:
- The non-weighted MPRAS model (model-1) achieved a Youden's J-index of 0.63-0.65, with a cut-off score of 41.50-43.50, showing sensitivity of 78-85% and specificity of 79-87%.
- The mean area under the curve (AUC) for model-1 ranged from 0.89 to 0.90, indicating good diagnostic accuracy compared to clinicians.
- A sub-model using only 4 risk factors demonstrated superior AUC with high sensitivity (89%) and specificity (94%).
Conclusions:
- The developed MPRAS models demonstrate good agreement with clinician decisions in identifying individuals at-risk for myopia progression.
- The MPRAS provides a valuable tool for objective risk stratification, aiding in personalized myopia management strategies.
- A simplified MPRAS model with fewer risk factors shows promising potential for efficient and accurate risk assessment.
