Rate and determinants of antiviral treatment initiation for patients with HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis B

Most clinic attenders with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) are serum HBeAg-negative, and a minority will require suppressive antiviral treatment. Expert guidelines propose schedules for the monitoring of untreated patients, but the recommended frequency of patient review does not reflect recognised demographic determinants of HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis. Also, the impact of patient ethnicity on risk has not been defined. The aim of our study was to determine the rates and determinants of antiviral treatment initiation in a large multi-ethnic cohort of CHB patients attending a single centre. We undertook a retrospective study using entirely electronic sources of patient information. Treatment initiation dates were identified from electronic pharmacy records. Crude and time-dependent statistical analyses were undertaken to identify rate and risk factors for treatment initiation. Treatment was initiated for 232/1256 (18.5%) patients with rates of 23.2% and 33.2% at 5 and 10 years. An increased risk of treatment was associated with male sex (RR 1.803), older age at presentation (RR 1.027 per year increase) and with non-Black ethnicity (RR 1.654). Patient sex, baseline age and ethnicity also determined risk for treatment in the subset of patients with normal serum ALT and low HBV DNA at baseline, though overall treatment rate in this group was low (only 2% per annum). Thus, patient demographics permit risk stratification for treatment initiation and could determine to a significant extent the frequency of review required for untreated HBeAg-negative patients. Black ethnicity is associated with a significant reduction in risk of treatment initiation.